Currency Market Commentary – Tue 31 August 2010

The September Dollar was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 38% retracement level of the June-August decline crossing at 83.62. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.46 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off August’s low, the reaction high crossing at 84.73 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at 83.64. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 84.73. First support is the overnight low crossing at 82.51. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 82.46.

The September Euro was higher overnight as it extends the rebound off last week’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.486 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off August’s high, the reaction low crossing at 125.240 is the next downside target. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 128.130. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 128.486. First support is last Tuesday’s low crossing at 125.870. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 125.240.

The September British Pound was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5600 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If June extends this month’s decline, the reaction low crossing at 1.5122 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday’s high crossing at 1.5597. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1.5600. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 1.5325. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 1.5122.

The September Swiss Franc was higher overnight and tested the 87% retracement level of the 2009-2010-decline crossing at .9868 as it extends the rally off June’s low. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends this summer’s rally, the 2009 high crossing at .10038 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at .9642 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .9878. Second resistance is the 2009 high crossing at .10038. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9731. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9642.

The September Canadian Dollar was higher due to short covering overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s decline. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off August’s high, July’s low crossing at 93.60 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.68 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.71. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.68. First support is Tuesday’s low crossing at 93.66. Second support is the reaction low crossing at 93.60.

The September Japanese Yen was steady overnight as it consolidates some of this week’s rally. Stochastics and the RSI are diverging but are turning bullish signaling that a move to new highs for the year is possible in the near future. Closes below Monday’s low crossing at .11641 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is last Tuesday’s high crossing at .11966. First support is Monday’s low crossing at .11641. Second support is the May-June uptrend line crossing near .11494.

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