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The move down in gold yesterday surprised many traders and flashed an exit signal based on MarketClub.com’s daily “Trade Triangle” technology. As we have mentioned before, we felt that gold was in a broad trading range and were not optimistic that it would shoot higher.

The action yesterday confirms that we have more of a two-way market. I expect we’ll see further selling on any rallies from this level.

In today’s video, I share with you some thoughts I have on gold based on one important element: how gold energy fields propel this market.

http://www.ino.com/gold-catches-traders-by-surprise.html

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub.com

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We ended 2009 with the overriding consensus that the dollar was going to be under pressure and keep moving lower against the euro. Well guess what, the euro proved to be even weaker than the US dollar as it moved to levels not seen since May of 2009.

So what happened? Was conventional thinking wrong, or did the market get it right? We may be at a tipping point where conventional thinking could well be wrong again.

In my new video I share with you what I see in the euro/dollar cross right now.

http://www.ino.com/has-the-euro-gone-too-far.html

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. I would really like to hear back from you, with regards to your thoughts on this cross-rate. Your comments are welcome on our blog.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub.com

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.0 per cent, effective 3 March 2010.

Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor Monetary Policy RBA

The global economy is growing, and world GDP is expected to rise at close to trend pace in 2010 and 2011. The expansion is still hesitant in the major countries, due to the continuing legacy of the financial crisis, resulting in ongoing excess capacity. In Asia, where financial sectors are not impaired, growth has continued to be quite strong. The authorities in some countries are now seeking to reduce the degree of stimulus to their economies.

Global financial markets are functioning much better than they were a year ago and the extraordinary support from governments and central banks is gradually being wound back. Credit conditions remain difficult in some major countries as banks continue to face loan losses associated with the period of economic weakness. Concerns regarding some sovereigns remain elevated.

In Australia, economic conditions in 2009 were stronger than expected, after a mild downturn a year ago. The rate of unemployment appears to have peaked at a much lower level than earlier expected. Labour market data and a range of business surveys suggest growth in the economy may have already been at or close to trend for a few months. There are some signs that the process of business sector de-leveraging is moderating, with the pace of decline in business credit lessening and indications that lenders are starting to become more willing to lend to some borrowers. Investment in the resources sector is very strong. Credit for housing has been expanding at a solid pace, and dwelling prices have risen significantly over the past year. New loan approvals for housing have moderated a little over recent months, however, as interest rates have risen and the impact of large grants to first-home buyers has tailed off.

Inflation has, as expected, declined in underlying terms from its peak in 2008, helped by the fall in commodity prices at the end of 2008, a noticeable slowing in private-sector labour costs during 2009, the rise in the exchange rate and the earlier period of slower growth in demand. CPI inflation has risen somewhat recently as temporary factors that had been holding it to unusually low rates are now abating. Inflation is expected to be consistent with the target in 2010.

With the risk of serious economic contraction in Australia having passed, the Board moved late last year to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus that had been put in place when the outlook appeared to be much weaker. Lenders generally raised rates a little more than the cash rate and most loan rates rose by close to a percentage point.

Interest rates to most borrowers nonetheless remain lower than average. The Board judges that with growth likely to be close to trend and inflation close to target over the coming year, it is appropriate for interest rates to be closer to average. Today’s decision is a further step in that process.

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Have You Registered for This Week’s MarketClub Webinar Yet?
… compliments of INO.com and MarketClub

http://www.ino.com/beginners-trading-terminology.html

In these free webinars you’ll learn directly from Adam Hewison the methods he uses to succeed in his trading, you’ll be able to interact with MarketClub in way you never were able to before, and you’ll have access to Adam and his top support staff. Sign-up below to register for the webinar series and receive three (3) bonuses as a thank you!

Between these valuable trading tips and daily market commentary from MarketClub’s Traders Blog… you will have all the tools you need to achieve your trading goals.

http://www.ino.com/beginners-trading-terminology.html

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It’s no secret that we’ve been socked with snow this past week. During that time, I was flipping through channels and came across Jim Cramer’s show Mad Money. I’ve said this before, Jim is a great entertainer. I am not so sure how good he is at picking stocks.

He mentioned shorting one stock, Garmin (symbol GRMN). What he said about Garmin sort of made sense to me both from a technical and fundamental viewpoint.

http://www.ino.com/jim-cramer-actually-got-it-right.html

So here is the fundamental viewpoint… Many of the new phones that are coming to market are referred to as “smart phones” and have the same capabilities as a standalone, turn-by-turn GPS. In my own case, I have an Apple iPhone. I was looking for a navigational application in the App Store and found exactly what I needed and the good news was - it was free, that’s right free. So the question is, why would anyone pay $150, $200, or even $300 to Garmin to have one of their systems? Fundamentally, I think his case is very sound.

Then, I looked at the technical picture for Garmin and noticed that we had a red monthly “Trade Triangle” sell signal some time ago (November 4th to be exact at the price point $27.06). So here we are some three to four months later having Jim Cramer tell us that Garmin may be a short.

For my money, I want to be trading the “Trade Triangles” and not listening to Jim Cramer and getting old news.

In this short video on Garmin, you will see exactly what were looking at and where the signals kick in. I also point out where one very important technical indicator is at a tipping point.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements.

http://www.ino.com/jim-cramer-actually-got-it-right.html

I hope you enjoy the video and make a comment on the blog about how you feel about this market.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub.com

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In today’s short video we examine the crash of 1929 and the similarities to today’s Dow. This video is not meant to scare anyone, but to educate investors and traders of the possibilities that may exist in today’s market.

We could be, repeat, could be very close to a tipping point similar to that of 1930 when the Dow had ended a 50% correction to the upside. I invite you to watch my latest video and see what makes sense to you.

As always our videos are free to watch and there are no registration requirements. If you agree or disagree with this video please feel free to comment on our blog.

http://mywealthmastery.com/dow-1929-vs-dow-now.html

Every success,
Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub.com

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 3.75 per cent.

Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor Monetary Policy RBA

The global economy is growing, and world GDP is expected to rise at close to trend pace in 2010 and 2011. The expansion is still likely to be modest in the major countries, due to the continuing legacy of the financial crisis, resulting in ongoing excess capacity. In Asia, where financial sectors are not impaired, recovery has been much quicker to date, though the Chinese authorities are now seeking to reduce the degree of stimulus to their economy. Global financial markets are functioning much better than they were a year ago. Credit conditions nonetheless remain difficult in the major countries as banks continue to face loan losses associated with the period of economic weakness. Concerns regarding some sovereigns have increased.

In Australia, economic conditions have been stronger than expected, after a mild downturn a year ago. The effects of the fiscal stimulus on consumer demand have now faded, but household finances are being supported by strong labour market outcomes and a recovery in net worth. Public infrastructure spending is now boosting demand, as is an upturn in housing construction. Investment in the resources sector is strong. The rate of unemployment appears to have peaked at a much lower level than earlier expected.

Inflation has, as expected, declined in underlying terms from its peak in 2008, helped by the fall in commodity prices at the end of 2008, a noticeable slowing in private?sector labour costs during 2009, the recent rise in the exchange rate and a period of slower growth in demand. CPI inflation has risen somewhat recently as temporary factors that had been holding it down are now abating. Inflation is expected to be consistent with the target in 2010.

Credit for housing has been expanding at a solid pace, and dwelling prices have risen significantly over the past year. Business credit, in contrast, has continued to fall, as companies have sought to reduce leverage, and lenders have imposed tighter lending standards and in some cases sought to scale back their balance sheets. The decline in credit has been concentrated among large firms, which generally have had good access to equity capital and, more recently, to debt markets; credit conditions remain difficult for many smaller businesses.

With the risk of serious economic contraction in Australia having passed, the Board had moved at recent meetings to lessen the degree of monetary stimulus that was put in place when the outlook appeared to be much weaker. Lenders have generally raised rates a little more than the cash rate over recent months and most loan rates have risen by close to a percentage point. Since information about the early impact of those changes is still limited, the Board judged it appropriate to hold a steady setting of monetary policy for the time being.

Interest rates to most borrowers nonetheless remain lower than average. If economic conditions evolve broadly as expected, the Board considers it likely that monetary policy will, over time, need to be adjusted further in order to ensure that inflation remains consistent with the target over the medium term.

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On Wednesday, after much hype and drama, Steve Jobs walked onstage and unveiled Apple’s latest creation - the iPad. Having watched almost every key address for Apple for many years I, like many others, were disappointed that the product didn’t live up to the hype. Nonetheless, Apple will sell a boatload of these products, but not as many as the iPhone.

Upon reflection, it occurred to me that Steve Jobs is changing the whole business model of Apple and I don’t believe anyone has caught on to this yet.

In all the reports I’ve read after the launch of the iPad, I think every writer /analyst missed this key point: Steve Jobs wants to be like King Gillette.

If you don’t know who King Gillette was, you may not old enough to shave. King Gillette started his business at the beginning of the century. His business model is what I believe Apple’s business model will be in the future.

Long ago, King Gillette decided to practically give the razor away at or below cost, but sell the razor blades separately.

http://www.ino.com/info/512/CD3399/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

So here’s what I think, I think Apple wants to give the iPhone and the iPad to as many people as possible at cost or with a small profit. Remember now, AT&T subsidized the iPhone and Apple gets a slice of the pie from every AT&T customer that has an iPhone. Now why would they do that you might ask?

The key reason, I would argue, is that Apple wants the magic of recurring revenues. This is the dream of many companies - to have millions of folks paying a small amount of money every month for using a service. What makes Apple stand out is the fact that they have an army of developers who are writing code for some very cool apps. Yes, there is an app for that. In fact, there is an app for almost every idea ever thought of.

Not only has the app store been widely successful, but Apple also has iTunes, and iBooks along with iTV coming down the road. So this is what I believe Apple’s business model is going to be: with 125 million people who have giving Apple their contact and credit card information, Apple has a huge base of customers much like the newspapers and magazines did in the ’60s and ’70s, but on a much smaller scale. Now Apple can upsell products to those customers at will. The genius part about all of this is the fact that other people are creating products to be sold through the Apple store. Apple just reinvented the King Gillette model in a thoroughly modern way. Hat’s off to you Steve.

That’s my take on Apple’s stealth business model.

Now let’s take a look at the stock.

In my short video, I explain to you some key factors I’m watching that I think will make the difference in this market. If you have a few minutes, please take the time to watch this juggernaut of a stock and what I think is ahead for the market in the next 2 months.

http://www.ino.com/info/512/CD3399/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

As always videos are free to watch and there is no registration required.

The only request that we make is that if you find the video interesting or even disagree with the analysis, please comment on a blog. We would love to hear from you.

All the best,

Adam Hewison
President, INO.com
Co-creator, MarketClub

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At its meeting today, the Board decided to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.5 per cent, effective 4 November 2009.

Statement by Glenn Stevens, Governor Monetary Policy RBA

The global economy has resumed growth. With economic policy settings likely to remain expansionary for some time, the recovery is likely to continue during 2010 and forecasts have been revised higher. The expansion is generally expected to be modest in the major countries, due to the continuing legacy of the financial crisis. Prospects for Australia’s Asian trading partners appear to be noticeably better. Growth in China has been very strong, which is having a significant impact on other economies in the region and on commodity markets. For Australia’s trading partner group, growth in 2010 is likely to be close to trend.

Sentiment in global financial markets is much better than earlier in the year. Nonetheless, the state of balance sheets in some major countries remains a potential constraint on their expansion.

Economic conditions in Australia have been stronger than expected and measures of confidence have recovered. Some spending has probably been brought forward by the various policy initiatives. With those effects now diminishing, these areas of demand may soften somewhat. Some types of capital spending are likely to be held back for a while by financing constraints, but it now appears that private investment will not be as weak as earlier expected. Medium-term prospects for investment appear, moreover, to be strengthening. Higher dwelling activity and public infrastructure spending are also starting to provide more support to spending. There have been some early signs of an improvement in labour market conditions. The rate of unemployment is now likely to peak at a considerably lower level than earlier expected.

Inflation has been declining for the past year. In underlying terms, inflation should continue to moderate in the near term, but now will probably not fall as far as earlier thought. Headline CPI inflation on a year-ended basis has been unusually low because of temporary factors, and will probably rise somewhat over the coming year. Both CPI and underlying inflation are expected to be consistent with the target in 2010.

Housing credit growth has been solid and dwelling prices have risen appreciably this year. Business borrowing has been declining as companies have sought to reduce leverage in an environment of tighter lending standards. For many business borrowers, increases in risk margins are still coming through. The decline in credit has been concentrated among large firms, which have had good access to equity capital and, more recently, to debt markets. Share markets have recovered significant ground.

The Board noted that the rise in the exchange rate is likely to constrain output in the tradeables sector and dampen price pressures. Nonetheless, growth is likely to be close to trend over the year ahead and inflation close to target. With the risk of serious economic contraction in Australia now having passed, the Board’s view is that it is prudent to lessen gradually the degree of monetary stimulus that was put in place when the outlook appeared to be much weaker. The adjustments at the October and November meetings will work to increase the sustainability of growth in economic activity and keep inflation consistent with the target over the years ahead.

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Of the three major indexes we track: DOW, NASDAQ and the S&P 500, only the NASDAQ is in thin air.

What do I mean by thin air? So far the NASDAQ is the only index to make it past the 50% Fibonacci retracement levels as measured from the highs seen in 2007 and the lows that were made in March of this year.

Both the Dow and the S&P 500 have rallied strongly from their March lows but have not made it over the 50% retracement level. The question is, will Dow and S&P500 follow NASDAQ and make it past the 50% Fibonacci retracement level?

http://www.ino.com/info/466/CD3399/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

Many professional traders are looking at the NASDAQ’s Fibonacci retracement as it represents a potentially key turning point for this year’s market.

While not all the pieces are in place to go short or get out of long positions, one of the first clues is being put in place today by the Japanese candlestick charts.

This new video shares with you the NASDAQ retracement levels, as well as one of the key components that could lead to a potential reversal to the downside.

As always, these videos are free to watch and there is no need to register.

http://www.ino.com/info/466/CD3399/&dp=0&l=0&campaignid=3

To your trading success!

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