The following series is excerpted from two classic issues of Robert Prechter’s Elliott Wave Theorist. Although originally published in 2004, the valuable series has been re-released in the Independent Investor eBook, along with over 100 pages of other reports that challenge conventional economic thinking.

Here is Part I of the series. Check back in a few days to read Part II, or you can download your free copy of the Independent Investor eBook here.

See if you can answer these four questions:

In 1950, a good computer cost $1 million. In 1990, it cost $5000. Today it costs $1000.

Question: What will a good computer cost 50 years from today?     

Democracy as a form of government has been spreading for centuries. In the 1940s, Japan changed from an empire to a democracy. In the 1980s, the Russian Soviet system collapsed, and now the country holds multi-party elections. In the 1990s, China adopted free-market reforms. In March of this year, Iraq, a former dictatorship, celebrated a new democratic constitution.

Question: Fifty years from today, will a larger or smaller percentage of the world’s population live under democracy?

In the decade from 1983 to 1993, there were ten months of recession in the U.S.; in the subsequent decade from 1993 to 2003, there were 8 months of recession. In the first period, expansion was underway 92 percent of the time; in the second period, it was 93 percent.

Question: What percentage of the time will expansion take place during the decade from 2003 to 2013?

In 1970, Reserve Funds kicked off the hugely successful money market fund industry. In 1973, the CBOE introduced options on stocks. In 1977, Michael Milken invented junk bond financing, which became a major category of investment. In 1982, stock index futures and options on futures began to trade. In 1983, options on stock indexes became available. Keogh plans, IRAs and 401k’s have brought tax breaks to the investing public. The mutual fund industry, a small segment of the financial world in the late 1970s, has attracted the public’s invested wealth to the point that there are more mutual funds than there are NYSE stocks. Futures contracts on individual stocks have just begun trading.

Question: Over the next 50 years, will the number and sophistication of financial services increase or decrease?

Observe that I asked you a microeconomic question, a political question, a macroeconomic question and a financial question.

Trend Extrapolation

If you are like most people, you extrapolated your answers from the trends of previous data. You expect cheaper computers, more democracy, an economic expansion rate in the 90-95 percent range, and an increase in financial sophistication.

It appears sensible to answer such questions by extrapolation because people default to physics when predicting social trends. They think, “Momentum will remain constant unless acted on by an outside force.” This mode of thought is deeply embedded in our minds because it has tremendous evolutionary advantages. When Og threw a rock at Ugg back in the cave days, Ugg ducked. He ducked because his mind had inherited and/or learned the consequences of the Law of Conservation of Momentum. The rock would not veer off course because there was nothing between the two men to act upon it, and rocks do not have minds of their own. Earlier animals that incorporated responses to the laws of physics lived; those that didn’t died, and their genes were weeded out of the gene pool. The Law of Conservation of Momentum makes possible our modern technological world. People rely on it every day. Despite its use in so many areas, however, it is inapplicable to predicting social change. For most people in most circumstances, the proper answer to each of the above questions is, “I don?t know.” (Socionomics can give you an edge in social prediction, but that’s another story.)

The most certain aspect of social history is dramatic change. To get a feel for how useless — even counterproductive — extrapolation can be in social forecasting, consider these questions:

1. It is 1886. Project the American railroad industry.
2. It is 1970. Project the future of China.
3. It is 1963. Project the cost of medical care in the U.S.
4. It is 1969. Project the U.S. space program.
5. It is 100 A.D. Project the future of Roman civilization.

In 1886, you would have envisioned a future landscape combed with rail lines connecting every city, town and neighborhood. Small trains would roll around to your home to pick you up, and a network of rail lines would help deliver you to your destination efficiently and cheaply. Super-fast trains would make cross-country runs. You could eat, read or sleep along the way.

Is that what happened? Would anyone have predicted, indeed did anyone predict, that trains in 2004 would often be going slower than they did in 1886, that they would routinely jump the tracks, that they would be inefficient, that they would have little food and few sleeper cars, that the equipment would be old and worn out?

In 1970, the Communist party was entrenched in China. Over 35 million people had been slaughtered, culminating in the Cultural Revolution in which Chinese youths helped exterminate people just because they were smart, successful or capitalist. Would anyone have imagined that China, in just over a single generation, would be out-producing the United States, which was then the world’s premier industrial giant?

In 1963, medical care was cheap and accessible. Doctors made house calls for $20. Hospitals were so accommodating that new mothers typically stayed for a week or more before being sent home, and it was affordable. Would anyone have guessed that forty years later, pills would sell for $2 apiece, a surgical procedure and a week in the hospital could cost one-third of the average annual wage, and people would have to take out expensive insurance policies just in case they got sick?

In the space of just 30 years, rockets had gone from the experimental stage to such sophistication that one of them brought men to the moon and back. In 1969, many people projected the U.S. space program over the next 30 years to include colonies on the moon and trips to Mars. After all, it was only sensible, wasn’t it? By the laws of physics, it was. But in the 35 years since 1969, the space program has relentlessly regressed.

In 100 A.D., would you have predicted that the most powerful culture in the world would be reduced to rubble in a bit over three centuries? If Rome had had a stock market, it would have gone essentially to zero.

Futurists nearly always extrapolate past trends, and they are nearly always wrong. You cannot use extrapolation under the physics paradigm to predict social trends, including macroeconomic, political and financial trends. The most certain aspect of social history is dramatic change. More interesting, social change is a self-induced change. Rocks cannot change trajectory on their own, but societies can and do change direction, all the time.

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline The Stock Market Is Not Physics: Part I. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Looking ahead to a new year and planning for the future 

It’s hard to believe that 2011 has passed so quickly and that 2012 will soon be here. Now is a good time to look back over the past year and assess your finances. Did your choices this year put you in better or worse circumstances? Do you have the information needed to make wise decisions in the next year? Are you prepared to protect your financial future?

The following excerpt from Conquer the Crash explains the importance of preparing and taking action now so that you’ll be ready for what’s ahead. You can read 8 more chapters from Conquer the Crash — 42 pages of critical information, including a list of imperative “dos and don’ts” — Free. Find out how below.

Chapter 14: Making Preparations and Taking Action

The ultimate effect of deflation is to reduce the supply of money and credit. Your goal is to make sure that it doesn’t reduce the supply of your money and credit. The ultimate effect of depression is financial ruin. Your goal is to make sure that it doesn’t ruin you.

Many investment advisors speak as if making money by investing is easy. It’s not. What’s easy is losing money, which is exactly what most investors do. They might make money for a while, but they lose eventually. Just keeping what you have over a lifetime of investing can be an achievement. That’s what this book is designed to help you do, in perhaps the single most difficult financial environment that exists.

Protecting your liquid wealth against a deflationary crash and depression is pretty easy once you know what to do. Protecting your other assets and ensuring your livelihood can be serious challenges. Knowing how to proceed used to be the most difficult part of your task because almost no one writes about the issue.

Preparing to Take the Right Actions    

In a crash and depression, we will see stocks going down 90 percent and more, mutual funds collapsing, massive layoffs, high unemployment, corporate and municipal bankruptcies, bank and insurance company failures and ultimately financial and political crises. The average person, who has no inkling of the risks in the financial system, will be shocked that such things could happen, despite the fact that they have happened repeatedly throughout history.

Being unprepared will leave you vulnerable to a major disruption in your life. Being prepared will allow you to make exceptional profits both in the crash and in the ensuing recovery. For now, you should focus on making sure that you do not become a zombie-eyed victim of the depression.

The best news of all is that this depression should be relatively brief, though it will seem like an eternity while it is in force. The longest depression on record in the U.S. lasted three years and five months, from September 1929 to February 1933. The longest sustained stock market decline in U.S. history lasted seven years, from 1835 to 1842, and featured two depressions in close proximity. As the expected trend change is of one larger degree than those, it should be a commensurately large setback, but it should still be brief relative to the duration of the preceding advance.

Taking the Right Actions

Countless advisors have touted “stocks only,” “gold only,” “diversification,” a “balanced portfolio” and other end-all solutions to the problem of attending to your investments. These approaches are usually delusions. As I try to make clear in the following pages, no investment strategy will provide stability forever. You will have to be nimble enough to see major trends coming and make changes accordingly. What follows is a good guide, I think, but it is only a guide.

The main goal of investing in a crash environment is safety. When deflation looms, almost every investment category becomes associated with immense risks. Most investors have no idea of these risks and will think you are a fool for taking precautions.

Many readers will object to taking certain prudent actions because of the presumed cost. For example: “I can’t take a profit; I’ll have to pay taxes!” My reply is, if you don’t want to pay taxes, well, you’ll get your wish; your profit will turn into a loss, and you won’t have to pay any taxes. Or they say, “I can’t sell my stocks for cash; interest rates are only 2 percent!” My reply is, if you can’t abide a 2 percent annual gain, well, you’ll get your wish there, too; you’ll have a 30 percent annual loss instead. Others say, “I can’t cash out my retirement plan; there’s a penalty!” I reply, take your money out before there is none to get. Then there is the venerable, “I can’t sell now; I’d be taking a loss!” I say no, you are recovering some capital that you can put to better use. My advice always is, make the right move, and the costs will take care of themselves.

If you are preoccupied with pedestrian concerns or blithely going along with mainstream opinions, you need to wake up now, while there is still time, and actively take charge of your personal finances. First you must make your capital, your person and your family safe. Then you can explore options for making money during the crash and especially after it’s over.

As the subtitle implies, this book is designed as a guide for arranging your finances prior to any future deflationary depression, whether one occurs now, as I expect, or not. Although I want this book to have value beyond the present situation, some of the specifics of my suggestions are time-sensitive by nature. If you need to know today where you can find the few exceptionally sound banks, insurers and other essential service providers, if you want to locate the safest structures in the world for storing your wealth, whether in paper monetary instruments or physical assets such as precious metals, you will find the answers in these chapters. Yet over time, the best institutions and services today might be long gone, and others may have taken their place. For a few years at least, we will post free updates to this information at www.conquerthecrash.com/readerspage. But if you read this book 50 years from now, you may have to do your own research to fit the investment options and service providers available at the time. Nevertheless, the general nature of your goals should be much as outlined herein.

Most people do not have the foggiest idea how to prepare their investments for a deflationary crash and depression, so the techniques are almost like secrets today. The following chapters show you a few steps that will make your finances secure despite almost anything that such an environment can throw at them.

8 Chapters of Conquer the Crash — FREE!

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This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Preparing Your Finances for 2012. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Often, basics is all you need to know.

Understand the basics of the subject matter, break it down to its smallest parts — and you’ve laid a good foundation for proper application of… well, anything, really. That’s what we had in mind when we put together our free 10-lesson online Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial, based largely on Robert Prechter’s classic “Elliott Wave Principle — Key to Market Behavior.” Here’s an excerpt:

Successful market timing depends upon learning the patterns of crowd behavior. By anticipating the crowd, you can avoid becoming a part of it. …the Wave Principle is not primarily a forecasting tool; it is a detailed description of how markets behave. In markets, progress ultimately takes the form of five waves of a specific structure.

The personality of each wave in the Elliott sequence is an integral part of the reflection of the mass psychology it embodies. The progression of mass emotions from pessimism to optimism and back again tends to follow a similar path each time around, producing similar circumstances at corresponding points in the wave structure.

These properties not only forewarn the analyst about what to expect in the next sequence but at times can help determine one’s present location in the progression of waves, when for other reasons the count is unclear or open to differing interpretations.

As waves are in the process of unfolding, there are times when several different wave counts are perfectly admissible under all known Elliott rules. It is at these junctures that knowledge of wave personality can be invaluable. If the analyst recognizes the character of a single wave, he can often correctly interpret the complexities of the larger pattern.

The following discussions relate to an underlying bull market… These observations apply in reverse when the actionary waves are downward and the reactionary waves are upward.

1) First waves — …about half of first waves are part of the “basing” process and thus tend to be heavily corrected by wave two. In contrast to the bear market rallies within the previous decline, however, this first wave rise is technically more constructive, often displaying a subtle increase in volume and breadth. Plenty of short selling is in evidence as the majority has finally become convinced that the overall trend is down. Investors have finally gotten “one more rally to sell on,” and they take advantage of it. The other half of first waves rise from either large bases formed by the previous correction, as in 1949, from downside failures, as in 1962, or from extreme compression, as in both 1962 and 1974. From such beginnings, first waves are dynamic and only moderately retraced.

Read the rest of this 10-lesson Basic Elliott Wave Tutorial online now, free!

Here’s what you’ll learn:

• What the basic Elliott wave progression looks like
• Difference between impulsive and corrective waves
• How to estimate the length of waves
• How Fibonacci numbers fit into wave analysis
• Practical application tips for the method
• And More

Keep reading this free tutorial today.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Learn Elliott Wave Analysis — Free. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

What Is Backing Your Deposits in the Bank?

December 9, 2011
By Elliott Wave International

Is the bank really the safest place to keep your money? Robert Prechter joins the Mind of Money host Douglass Lodmell to discuss what backs bank deposits and how you can keep your hard-earned money safe.

We invite you to watch the interview below. Then read Robert Prechter’s free report, Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks.

What is the best course of action to safeguard your money?

Read our free 10-page report, Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks, to learn:

• The 5 major conditions at many banks that pose a danger to your money.
• The top two safest banks in your state.
• Bob Prechter’s recommendations for finding a safe bank.
• And more!

Download your free report, Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks, now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline What Is Backing Your Deposits in the Bank?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

“The Coming Worldwide Bank run”
December 6, 2011
By Elliott Wave International

Lost in the clamor over the central banks’ “let there be liquidity” pronouncement, Standard & Poor’s just downgraded fifteen major U.S. and European banks.

The downgrade doesn’t mean Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Barclays, UBS, Wells Fargo and others will close shop tomorrow. But the long-term credit downgrade does raise questions about their stability.

After all, the 2007-2009 financial crisis has supposedly passed. But during the two-year “recovery,” did most big banks really return to sound fiscal health? Well, Standard & Poor’s downgrade speaks for itself.

One reason for the downgrades was Standard & Poor’s own revision to its rating system. Nonetheless, CNBC reported (11/29), “The outcome of the re-rating of the biggest banks was worse than S&P has forecast for all banks.”

And apparently, the big banks were in worse shape in 2008 than most people realized. Thanks to the Freedom of Information Act, Bloomberg just revealed that banks got more bailout money from the Federal Reserve than was previously made public:

“The Fed didn’t tell anyone which banks were in trouble so deep they required a combined $1.2 trillion on Dec. 5, 2008, their single neediest day. Bankers didn’t mention that they took tens of billions of dollars in emergency loans at the same time they were assuring investors their firms were healthy.”
    — Bloomberg, November 28

And in light of the downgrades, what does this revelation say about assurances of financial stability that come from the banks today?

Please consider this insightful excerpt from the September Elliott Wave Theorist:

“The Coming Worldwide Bank run”
“In the late 1990s and mid 2000s, the loan-to-deposit ratio for U.S. banks was nearly 1.00, meaning that almost all deposits were lent out. That shortfall alone was a serious problem, because if even 5% of depositors had decided to withdraw their money, banks would have been unable to pay. Some of the banks’ loans were quickly callable, but by 2006, the credit-fueled real estate boom had claimed a large percentage of outstanding loans, both inside and outside the banking system. These loans are not quickly callable. The problem was serious in 2002 and enormous in 2006. Now it has become acute, because many loans are becoming fossilized, as the market for mortgage investing has dried up while foreclosures on the ‘collateral’ have been slowed by court actions and politics.

“The specter of a banking panic has become far darker since the collateral for bank deposits — land and buildings — has fallen globally in value at the steepest rate since the Great Depression. One day this shortfall in collateral value will impress itself on people’s minds, and there will be an unprecedented run on banks around the globe…. Yes, I know about the FDIC, but I don’t believe it will be able to fulfill its promises when most banks go bust.”

Notice the phrase in the last sentence of the quote, “most banks” This obviously implies that some banks are safer than others.

What is the best course of action to safeguard your money? Read our Free 10-page Report titled “Discover the Top 100 Safest U.S. Banks” to learn:

• The top two safest banks in your state.
• The 5 major conditions at many banks that pose a danger to your money.
• Robert Prechter’s recommendations for finding a safe bank.
• And more!

Download your free report now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline America’s Biggest Banks: How Safe Are They?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

Robert Prechter explains what’s the real problem with today’s market
November 28, 2011
By Elliott Wave International

What is the real problem with today’s market? Watch this excerpt from Robert Prechter’s special, video issue of the August 2011 Elliott Wave Theorist. Prechter shows you how the buildup of dollar-denominated debt has brought us to what he calls a critical market juncture.

Get even more information about current market trends and how to prepare for what’s ahead with our new 14-page investing report. See details below.

The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read for 2012

Every year or two Elliott Wave International (EWI) publishes analysis with a message so critical that they decide to share it, FREE.

They have just released The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read for 2012, a free report to help you navigate the markets and prepare for what’s ahead. You’ll get hard facts, 25 eye-opening charts and 14 pages of straightforward commentary that will put the volatile market action of the past months into perspective within the “big picture” to help you position for the years to come.

Download your free report now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline Prechter: “The Trend Is Exhausted”. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

November 22, 2011
By Elliott Wave International

In an interview with the Mind of Money, Robert Prechter stresses the importance of keeping your money safe in this bear market environment. According to the Elliott wave model, we have entered a critical phase in the market. This 3-minute video clip will help you to prepare for what’s ahead.

The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read for 2012

Every year or two Elliott Wave International (EWI) publishes analysis with a message so critical that they decide to share it, FREE. They have just released The Most Important Investment Report You’ll Read for 2012, a free report to help you navigate the markets and prepare for what’s ahead. You’ll get hard facts, 25 eye-opening charts and 14 pages of straightforward commentary that will put the volatile market action of the past months into perspective within the “big picture” to help you position for the years to come.

Download your free report now.

“Darkest Days” for the Economy: Behind Us, or Just Ahead?
Economic skies forecast: slowly clearing, heavy rain returning, or cyclone?
November 18, 2011
By Elliott Wave International

Many people still talk about a “recovery,” or at worst only see a possible double-dip recession. But what if the mistake was to think the economy was only in a recession in the first place? It can’t “double-dip” when it never truly recovered:

“The respite following the 2009 stock market low is not a new expansion. It has failed to improve housing sales, barely caused employment to budge, and hasn’t managed — despite the unprecedented manufacture of new Fed money — to get the total supply of credit back above its 2008 high.”

Elliott Wave Theorist, Sept. 2011

Indeed, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing measures have failed.

The Fed’s latest policy plan to stimulate the economy has been dubbed “Operation Twist.”

“On September 30, the Fed started operation twist, by which it will sell its holdings of short-term Treasuries and use the proceeds to buy longer-dated T-bonds. The goal is to foster more credit by lowering long-term borrowing costs. But last month [we] noted that low rates compound the money-making problem for banks by reducing margins. ‘Historical verification of this development is obvious from Japan,’ says a recent report from Hoisington Investment Management. ‘Normal bank lending functions are essentially shut down. This risk now confronts the U.S.’ The problem is not the cost of credit; it’s demand, which is waning. Lower rates will have little effect in helping foster enough expansion to allow the mountain of total credit-market debt built up over the last 70 years to be repaid, or even serviced.”

Elliott Wave Financial Forecast, November 2011

Imagine if the newspapers reported that Bernanke appeared before Congress and said this:

“‘This is the most serious financial crisis we’ve seen, at least since the 1930s, if not ever.’”

Bernanke did not say that, but his counterpart in Britain did. As reported by The Telegraph (Oct. 6), the comment came from Sir Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England.

The Fed is unable to stimulate the economy, the unemployment rate is not improving, and housing is in a “triple-dip” in some areas of the country. What does this mean for the markets and your investments in 2012?

Elliott Wave International just released a free report to help you navigate the markets and prepare for what’s ahead. You’ll get hard facts, 25 eye-opening charts and 14 pages of straightforward commentary that will put the volatile market action of the past months into perspective within the “big picture” to help you position for the years to come.

Download your free report now.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline “Darkest Days” for the Economy: Behind Us, or Just Ahead?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

“Your Work Helps Me in a Very Practical Way”
Prechter talks with Mind of Money Host Doug Lodmell
November 09, 2011
By Elliott Wave International

Robert Prechter offers a broad overview of the Wave Principle in this interview clip with The Mind of Money host, Douglass Lodmell. As Bob explains, “The work we do is so different from what other people do.” Enjoy listening to Bob explain how the Wave Principle differs from fundamental analysis and how it can help you to anticipate important turns and changes in the markets.

Learn the Why, What and How of Elliott Wave Analysis

Financial media use news and economic events to explain market moves. Steer clear of this misguided approach. Learn what really moves the markets with The Elliott Wave Crash Course.

In this series of three FREE videos, Senior Tutorial Instructor Wayne Gorman demolishes the widely held notion that news drives the markets. Each video will provide a basis for using Elliott wave analysis in your own trading and investing decisions.

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline “Your Work Helps Me in a Very Practical Way”. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.

America’s First Deflationary Depression: Is a Bigger One Ahead?
Social psychology precipitates economic depressions
November 07, 2011
By Elliott Wave International

Don’t blame Martin Van Buren for America’s first deflationary depression. Social mood rode higher in the saddle than did our 8th President, who only stood 5′ 6″.

Elected in 1836, by the time Van Buren assumed office in March 1837 a speculative bubble had burst and a banking crisis was at hand (sound familiar?) — the national mood had turned south and the “Panic of 1837″ followed. Van Buren was known as “The Little Magician,” but he could not pull an economic recovery out of the hat. He met defeat seeking a second term.

America’s first deflationary depression lasted until 1842. Van Buren blamed over-zealous business practices and a credit bubble (sound familiar 2x?). The panic precipitated bank failures; many speculators who bought land to capitalize on railroad expansion lost everything. The depression worsened as Van Buren continued Andrew Jackson’s economic policies. Businesses failed and unemployment was widespread. There were even “food riots” in several cities.

(Author’s note: Because of substantial revenue inflows into the Treasury during the boom of the early 1830s, the United States government became debt free in 1835. Ironically, this was the very year the depression began. Stock prices fell sharply despite the federal government paying off all of its debt. Conventional wisdom would have us believe reducing the national debt, or paying it off entirely, would lift stock prices. It didn’t happen in 1835, so there must be something else at work. That “something else” is social mood.)

The 1837-1842 deflationary depression comprised Supercycle Wave II, the end of which saw the beginning of the biggest economic expansion in history — Supercycle wave III! The 1929-1933 Great Depression still grabs more attention, but in fact the earlier Supercycle Wave II decline set the stage for the United States becoming the greatest economic and military power the world has ever known.

President Herbert Hoover held office during the 1929 Crash and onset of the Great Depression, a.k.a. Supercycle Wave IV. Yet no U.S. President has thus far been at the helm during a Grand Supercycle market decline. The last decline of that degree had its origin in the South Sea Bubble in 1720, when Great Britain’s King George I was on the throne. The rampant speculation of the time spread beyond the financial class, such that porters and ladies’ maids had enough money to buy their own carriages. Members of the clergy took part in the mania. Poof! Life savings were wiped out. England’s Postmaster General committed suicide. Hundreds of members of Parliament lost money. As for the directors of the South Sea Company itself, they were forced to give up their property and arrested to boot.

Martin Van Buren led the nation during our country’s first Supercycle depression — as President he was powerless to stop it. Who will occupy the Oval Office when the next Grand Supercycle depression develops? This we believe: That individual will be powerless to prevent it. He or she will only be a President.

What is more powerful than a President of the United States? The answer is “social mood.” How is this powerful force shaping the economy?

Discover the answer in the 90-page Free Report called the Deflation Survival Guide.

Now is the time to prepare for a deflationary depression. Start by reading the 90-page free eBook, Deflation Survival Guide, which includes Robert Prechter’s most important analysis and forecasts regarding deflation. This guide will help you survive a major deflationary trend, and even equip you to prosper.

Download your free eBook, the Deflation Survival Guide, now >>

This article was syndicated by Elliott Wave International and was originally published under the headline America’s First Deflationary Depression: Is a Bigger One Ahead?. EWI is the world’s largest market forecasting firm. Its staff of full-time analysts led by Chartered Market Technician Robert Prechter provides 24-hour-a-day market analysis to institutional and private investors around the world.